Market volatility: Don’t just do something; stand there

Market volatility: Don’t just do something; stand there

We often talk about market volatility in the midst of surprise drops, but it’s useful to consider during calmer moments what behavior could be best for your accounts. When markets are in turmoil and account balances start to fall, many people feel a strong temptation to do something to “stop the bleeding” and cut their losses. But it’s often the case that staying the course proves to be the better path in the long run — and sometimes in the short-terms also. As we look back at the extreme market volatility that began at this time last year (Q4 2018), let’s consider how a few different investing scenarios would have played out. According to an analysis done by Vanguard, a hypothetical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio worth $1 million on November 1, 2018 would have lost 5.7% of its value by Christmas Eve. Yet selling the portfolio at that time and getting out of the market, even briefly, would have cost an investor tens of thousands of dollars in two months, compared to the alternative of staying fully invested. When faced with a similar situation, think about how you might feel if markets rebounded and you could have earned back all your

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Would stocks crash with a Trump impeachment?

President Donald Trump warned in a tweet last month amid the Ukraine whistleblower inquiry that his impeachment would cause “the markets crash.” Trump’s tweet came a day after the release of a rough summary of a July 25 phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The summary showed Trump asked Zelensky to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden. It was preceded by a whistleblower complaint that alleges Trump used the powers of the president’s office to solicit interference from a foreign country ahead of next year’s election. The complaint, along with the call, prompted an impeachment inquiry by the House of Representatives. This is not the first time Trump has warned of a market shock if Congress impeaches him. Last year amid the investigation into Russia meddling in the 2016 election, he told Fox News, “If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash. I think everybody would be very poor.” Is Trump right? Probably not. First, the risk to markets and the economy is not really that Trump might actually get forced out of office. Barring a truly devastating revelation, the Republican-controlled Senate will not vote to remove Trump, a president with

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